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World Cup Predictions

I went over to ESPN and tallied up the total number of goals in this year’s World Cup:  I counted 139 goals in 62 matches (margin of error:  +/- 3 goals?), for an average of 2.24 goals per match.  That’s total.  For both teams.  Think about that. 

Will the final be similar?  The Netherlands has averaged 2 goals per game (12 goals in 6 games)  over the first 6 games of the WC, and Spain has averaged 1.16 goals per game (7 goals in 6 games).  So maybe the final will see closer to 3.16 total goals?

It might be important to also consider these teams goals against average:  the Netherlands has conceded .83 goals per game (5 goals in 6 games), and Spain has only allowed .33 goals per game (2 goals in 6 games).  This simplistic analysis suggests something around 1.16 goals in tomorrow’s final.

My prediction–two total goals.  If I were you I’d take the under.

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  1. kelly honner
    July 10, 2010 at 5:45 pm

    How did you establish your margin of error?

    • July 10, 2010 at 6:40 pm

      As I looked over the scores and tallied up the goals, there were three times where my brain temporarily locked up. I figured each one of those brain-freezes might have cost me a goal.

  2. Nikita Zolotykh
    July 11, 2010 at 2:57 pm

    Well, while the game is still going on and it’s still 0-0, let me just add:
    The Octopus predicted Spain to win, so that 1 goal would be for Spain. (as I am hoping too)

    And, well applied analysis in the post!

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