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More on NFL Scoring

As the Detroit Lions prepare for their first compelling Thanksgiving Day game in 15 years, I thought I would revisit my pre-season hypothesis that scoring in the NFL would be down in 2011 due to the new kickoff rule.

A quick recap of my argument:  the new kickoff rule will result in more touchbacks, which will reduce overall starting field position, which will result in fewer points being scored.  An elementary analysis suggested that per-game scoring would be down by about 2 points per game.

The first two weeks of the season saw record-setting offensive production:  scoring was actually up by 2.5 points per game!  But now, with more than half the 2011 NFL season in the books, the average points-per-game is 44.07.  During the 2010 NFL season, the average points-per-game was around 44.16.

A TV analyst recently suggested that scoring decreases as the season progresses, due to factors like weather and injury.  Not only does this give me another idea for a math and sports analysis, it also gives me hope that perhaps my pre-season prediction may still come true!

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